Heinz SCHUMANN, Weingarten

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sehr schlecht 11 0.58 12 0.37 9 0.70 2 0.79 4 0.47 2 19 0.72 16 0.42 10 0.62 9 1.56 9 0.7 3 24 0.80 21 0.46 12 0.74 15 1.92 17 0.95 4 17 0.70 17 0.42 22 0.95 37 2.63 28 1.13 5 19 0.72 20 0.45 29 1.01 32 2 [...] sehr schlecht 6 0.43 7 0.29 7 0.69 1 0.39 1 0.26 2 14 0.65 13 0.37 9 0.63 6 1.24 5 0.51 3 25 0.81 21 0.46 14 0.78 13 1.83 13 0.83 4 20 0.73 21 0.46 25 1.07 35 2.59 27 1.12 5 24 0.79 25 0.49 28 1.09 37 2 [...] 31 9 1.67 Träger 5 0.51 10 0.74 14 0.85 24 1.08 34 1.22 14 0,90 Kindertagespflegeperson 4 0.58 4 0.44 8 0.75 16 0.88 33 1.18 36 1.69 Leitung 7 0.46 11 0.59 20 0.75 19 0.73 25 0.81 17 0.7 Fragetext: Wie gut …

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EPE(x0) = EY ,T ((Y − ŷ0) 2|x0) = EY ,T (((Y − f (x0)) + (f (x0)− ŷ0)) 2|x0) kreativ = EY ,T ((Y − f (x0)) 2 + (f (x0)− ŷ0) 2+ binomisch 2(Y − f (x0))(f (x0)− ŷ0)|x0) = EY ((Y − f (x0)) 2|x0)+ herausziehen [...] herausziehen EY ,T ((f (x0)− ŷ0) 2|x0)+ s.Formel(5) 2EY (Y − f (x0)|x0)EY ,T (f (x0)− ŷ0|x0) E(2) = 2 Jetzt EY (Y − f (x0)|x0) = EY (Y |x0)− f (x0) = 0 wegen der Annahme EY (Y |x0) = f (x0). 42 von 51 Wiederholung: [...] EPE(x0) = EY ((Y − f (x0)) 2|x0)+ Varε EY ,T ((f (x0)− ŷ0) 2|x0) = Varε + EY ,T ((f (x0)− ŷ0) 2|x0) = Varε + EY ,T (((f (x0)− EY ,T (ŷ0))+ kreativ (EY ,T (ŷ0)− ŷ0)) 2|x0) = Varε + EY ,T ((f (x0)− EY …

Generalized binary vector autoregressive processes

0.0576 -0.1074 0.233 0.177 0.0597 0.0032 0.126 0.2318 0.0895 0.1723 0.0685 0.0623 0.045 0.1624 0.2281 0.1512 -0.014 -0.0772 0.5134 0.016 0.0463 0.2509 0.1303 0.1589 0.1384 -0.0068 0.1418 0.1569 0.1421 [...] 2196 0.174 0.0647 -0.008 0.1381 0.2348 0.0817 0.1686 0.0696 0.0667 0.0472 0.1614 0.214 0.1607 -0.0278 -0.0933 0.4881 0.0161 0.0245 0.2419 0.1241 0.1753 0.1563 -0.0079 0.123 0.1486 0.142 0.1545 0.1266 0.0406 [...] NRT SG 0.0895 0.1723 0.0685 0.0623 0.045 0.1624 0.2281 0.1512 -0.014 -0.0772 0.5134 0.016 0.0463 0.2509 0.1303 0.1589 0.1384 -0.0068 0.1418 0.1569 0.1421 0.1433 0.114 0.0425 0.1149 0.3008 0.0744 0.0613 0 …

43 0.71 0.71 0.43 0.71 0.60 0.5p 0.43 0.14 0.29 0.43 0.43 0.34 0.75p 0.29 0.43 0.29 0.71 0.86 0.51 k = 0.1n 0.25p 0.43 0.57 0.71 0.14 0.29 0.43 0.5p 0.86 0.57 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.46 0.75p 0.14 0.71 0.86 0.29 [...] p+ 1 0.25p 0.71 0.29 0.43 0.29 0.43 0.43 0.5p 0.57 0.57 0.43 0.43 0.14 0.43 0.75p 0.14 0.14 0.57 0.43 0.29 0.31 k = 0.1n 0.25p 0.43 0.29 0.43 0.43 0.86 0.49 0.5p 0.71 0.43 0.29 0.29 0.57 0.46 0.75p 0.43 [...] 0.29 0.57 0.43 0.41 0.5p 0.57 0.00 0.43 0.29 0.29 0.37 0.75p 1.00 0.57 0.71 0.00 0.57 k = 0.1n 0.25p 0.57 0.14 0.71 0.43 0.29 0.43 0.5p 0.71 0.43 0.43 0.57 0.43 0.51 0.75p 0.71 0.80 0.57 0.43 0.43 0.58 …

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4,076 5.0 336,711 67,522 20.1 Bayern 100,607 84 0.1 389,217 834 0.2 Berlin 47,692 0 0.0 115,795 0 0.0 Brandenburg 32,907 0 0.0 74,453 0 0.0 Bremen 4,906 36 0.7 19,466 3 0.0 Hamburg 26,442 73 0.3 53,686 [...] 223 0.2 0 0.0 Saarland 23,609 21,928 92.9 103 0.4 0 0.0 Sachsen 112,533 106,468 94.6 300 0.3 0 0.0 Sachsen-Anhalt 55,201 51,512 93.3 111 0.2 0 0.0 Schleswig-Holstein 75,913 68,532 90.3 1,115 1.5 0 0.0 Thüringen [...] 1 1,224 0.4 3,595 1.2 Bayern 361,820 332,998 92.0 1,659 0.5 0 0.0 Berlin 109,384 99,449 90.9 1,453 1.3 0 0.0 Brandenburg 66,368 62,554 94.3 434 0.7 0 0.0 Bremen 18,981 16,292 85.8 135 0.7 6 0.0 Hamburg …

(see text). 24 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 0. 0 0. 1 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 0. 5 0. 6 Test case 1, pool size 118, fixed bias: real error rate p 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0. 0 0. 1 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 0. 5 0. 6 Test case 1, [...] te 0. 0 0. 2 0. 4 0. 6 0. 8 1. 0 p = 0.0 p = 0.1 p = 0.2 p = 0.3 p = 0.4 p = 0.5 Success rates for case 2c, error prob error probability su cc es s ra te 0. 0 0. 2 0. 4 0. 6 0. 8 1. 0 p = 0.0 p = 0.1 p [...] te 0. 0 0. 2 0. 4 0. 6 0. 8 1. 0 p = 0.0 p = 0.1 p = 0.2 p = 0.3 p = 0.4 p = 0.5 Success rates for case 3c, error prob error probability su cc es s ra te 0. 0 0. 2 0. 4 0. 6 0. 8 1. 0 p = 0.0 p = 0.1 p …

6 0.50 36.0 0.33 39.0 0.28 34.0 0.69 28.1 0.73 Ostdeutschland 37.9 0.23 39.7 0.03 35.4 0.24 29.1 0.55 39.0 0.37 40.4 0.36 36.6 0.59 31.7 2.45 Deutschland 36.2 0.21 39.2 0.02 35.0 0.12 26.8 0.46 36.6 0.28 [...] 28.1 0.76 37.0 0.56 38.3 0.58 34.5 0.55 27.6 1.00 Rheinland-Pfalz 36.5 0.85 39.0 0.01 35.0 0.00 26.7 1.32 38.4 0.91 40.3 0.42 35.0 0.00 26.5 2.21 Saarland 37.9 0.55 39.0 0.02 34.0 0.00 30.0 0.00 37.5 1 [...] 0.75 30.0 0.00 38.7 1.25 41.0 0.96 29.3 2.99 30.0 0.00 Niedersachsen 34.2 0.69 39.0 0.03 34.5 0.36 27.5 1.04 35.6 0.78 40.1 0.40 35.5 0.58 30.0 1.39 Nordrhein-Westfalen 37.4 0.34 39.1 0.03 35.0 0.19 28 …